The Twolves surprisingly stole G1 of the series, and I'm expecting some changes for the Grizzlies tonight. Time to bounce back for me & the Grizz.
Ja Morant O7.5 Assists - 1.91 - 1.75/4 Pokerstars
Pokerstars quite a bit above rest of the market, but 1.80+ is good too. Just lower stake.
As much as this bet is on Ja, its also a bet on Grizzlies having to change up their gameplan a bit. Earlier today I released a bet on the danish site, spilxperten.dk, targetting Steven Adams and my reasonings on why hes probably gonna see less minutes/opportunities. You can read it here https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/memphis-grizzlies-vs-minnesota-timberwolves-andreas-krogh/
So why am I targetting Ja's assists? I expect Brandon Clarke to play more minutes, with him and JJJ splitting minutes as a 5. That should allow for even more Morant-assists, due to both guys being bigger lob-threats, and just in general better scorers than Adams.
Ja has a tough scoring matchup vs Pat Bev, which is why he passed 59 times in the last game (avg 48 passes per game). Ja Morant has covered this bet in 3/5 games vs the Wolves this season. He only played 26min in one of the losses (posted 14 potential assists in that game).
We should expect 36+ minutes for Morant today, and in that amount of time this season, he has covered 11/18 games (60%). Timberwolves allow 4th most assists per game, and we're gonna see a crazy pace with total sitting at 240.5 points.
I would have this around 1.60-1.65